MARKET RATIOS

Reading the market in ratios

Cross-market ratios cut through the noise of individual price moves and show what's happening between two assets. When silver is cheap relative to gold, when stocks are expensive relative to gold, when the US is outperforming the rest of the world — these long-running ratios tell you which regime the market is in.

Stock Market Breadth & Strength

How broad the rally is, and where the leadership is concentrated. Rising ratios here typically mean megacaps, growth, or big-index leadership; falling ratios mean small caps, value, or broad participation catching up.

Risk-On vs Risk-Off Sentiment

Which side of the risk trade the market is favoring right now. Rising = risk assets leading their safer counterparts; falling = money rotating defensive.

Sector Relative Strength

Sector-by-sector performance measured against the broad market or a direct peer. Rising ratios = sector outperforming; falling ratios = sector lagging.

Commodity & Inflation Indicators

Cross-asset ratios that track inflation, real-economy stress, and the balance between commodities and paper assets. Uses futures for gold, silver, oil, and copper — not ETF proxies — for the cleanest long-horizon histories.

Global vs U.S. Market Strength

How U.S. equities are doing against the rest of the world. Rising = U.S. dominant, falling = international / emerging markets taking the lead.

Crypto

Two "digital-asset-treasury company vs the asset they hold" ratios. Rising = the equity wrapper is beating the underlying token — the market is willing to pay a premium for corporate treasury exposure. Falling = premium compressing, or wrapper lagging the asset.

MSTR / IBIT — Strategy vs Bitcoin

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How to read this

Strategy (MSTR, formerly MicroStrategy) is the largest corporate Bitcoin holder in the world — MSTR shares are essentially a leveraged Bitcoin proxy. IBIT is iShares’ spot Bitcoin ETF, the cleanest liquid tracker of BTC itself. When the ratio rises, MSTR is outrunning the coins it owns — the market is paying a bigger premium for corporate BTC treasury exposure. When it falls, the premium is compressing.

Rising sharply: speculative premium expanding, retail bidding up the MSTR wrapper.
Falling: premium compressing — either MSTR sold off, or BTC ran without MSTR keeping pace.
Flat over months: MSTR trading in line with its underlying BTC treasury.

Context: IBIT only launched 2024-01, so this ratio is short. The most-watched pattern: MSTR premium expanded aggressively in the 2024 spot-ETF-launch cycle, then compressed on subsequent BTC drawdowns. Sustained premium contraction is often taken as a “peak greed” signal by crypto watchers.

BMNR / ETHA — Bitmine vs Ethereum

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Same shape as MSTR/IBIT but on the Ethereum side. BMNR (Bitmine Immersion Technologies) is a public company built around an Ethereum treasury strategy; ETHA is iShares’ spot Ether ETF. When the ratio rises, BMNR is being bid up faster than ETH itself — premium expanding. When it falls, premium is compressing.

Rising: speculative wrapper premium expanding, ETH-treasury company outperforming ETH.
Falling: premium compressing — either BMNR lagging or ETH catching up.

Context: BMNR only pivoted to an ETH-treasury strategy in mid-2025, so the history is very short. Treat any extremes with humility — there simply isn’t enough data yet to say what “normal” looks like.

ETHA / IBIT — ETH vs Bitcoin

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The classic ETH/BTC relative-strength ratio, expressed through the spot ETFs (ETHA for Ethereum, IBIT for Bitcoin) instead of the raw tokens. Rising = Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin — the traditional “alt season” setup. Falling = Bitcoin leading — flight to the crypto safe-haven, altcoins bleeding.

Rising: ETH beating BTC. Historically alt-coin outperformance follows.
Falling: BTC leading, ETH lagging. Bitcoin dominance rising.
Sharp reversals: often precede broader crypto regime shifts.

Context: ETHA launched 2024-07, so the joint history with IBIT is short (~1 year). The 2024–2025 cycle saw Bitcoin dominate through the ETF-launch phase, with ETH relative strength lagging and premium compressing.

ETHA / GSOL — ETH vs Solana

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Ethereum vs Solana relative strength, using ETHA (iShares spot Ether ETF) and GSOL (Grayscale Solana Trust). Solana has been the leading “ETH killer” L1 in the 2024–2025 cycle, so this ratio tracks whether the market is favoring the incumbent smart-contract platform or its highest-momentum challenger.

Rising: ETH beating SOL — large-cap smart contract layer winning.
Falling: SOL beating ETH — Solana ecosystem momentum accelerating.

Context: GSOL trades at a large discount / premium to its underlying NAV (Grayscale trust structure), so this ratio is noisier than a pure token-price comparison would be. Read the trend more than absolute levels.