MARKET CONCENTRATION
How narrow is today’s rally in the S&P 500?
The “Magnificent 7” trade of 2023–2024 taught investors an uncomfortable lesson: a handful of megacaps can drag an entire index up (or down) while the average stock does something completely different. This page measures that split two ways — first with the Magnificent 7 vs the equal-weighted broad market, then with a purer cap-weighted vs equal-weighted full-index comparison for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.
Who's winning right now?
Return gap between the equal-weighted Magnificent 7 and the equal-weighted broad market over the selected window. The needle tells the story at a glance.
megacaps winning Broad →
broad market winning
Magnificent 7 vs Equal Weight
Equal-weighted average return of the Magnificent 7 — Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Tesla — compared to the equal-weighted broad-market ETF. A large positive gap = megacap dominance. A large negative gap = broadening rally.
The tickers being tracked
The seven megacap tech names that led the 2023–2024 rally. The same seven are used for the entire historical window, so the list never changes under you.
Cap-weight vs Equal-weight — full-index concentration
A cleaner concentration measure that doesn’t depend on picking a short list of names. Each index has a cap-weighted version (SPY, QQQ — the ETFs everyone quotes) and an equal-weighted version (RSP, QQEW — each of the 500 or 100 stocks weighted equally). When cap-weighted beats equal-weighted, the mega-caps are dragging the whole index up. When equal-weighted wins, the average stock is participating.
S&P 500 — SPY vs RSP
SPY beating RSP Broad →
RSP beating SPY
Nasdaq 100 — QQQ vs QQEW
QQQ beating QQEW Broad →
QQEW beating QQQ
How to read this
- Gap is the story. If the Magnificent 7 are beating the broad market (positive gap), the index rally is being led by megacaps — a "narrow" market. If the broad market is beating the Magnificent 7 (negative gap), participation is broadening — historically a healthier setup.
- Longer windows measure the group, not the leadership. The same seven names are used for the entire lookback, so nothing is swapped in or out with hindsight. But the "Magnificent 7" label only dates from 2023; before that, these were seven large tech stocks that had not yet become the market's leaders. Over 1D, 1W, 1M, 1Q the comparison is clean; over 6M and 1Y it is still fair; further back it says less about today's concentration.
- Cross-reference with the BATS. When the Magnificent 7 vs broad gap is stretched (either direction), and the BATS Breadth component is also flagging extremes, the concentration story is especially strong.
- Note the sector concentration. The Magnificent 7 are all tech or tech-adjacent. When tech leads the S&P 500, this table shows a big positive gap; when value/dividend stocks lead, the gap flips negative.
Reminder: None of this is investment advice. Historical patterns are not guarantees. Always do your own research or talk to a financial professional.