Tracking the S&P 500 · Live during market hours · Daily close overnight
The BATS blends widely-used public market indicators into a single, easy-to-read score. Higher = more bullish. Lower = more oversold. It is not investment advice — just a clear snapshot of where market sentiment sits right now.
This week’s read
What goes into the BATS
Each card below is one ingredient. We blend the live components together, weighted by their historical strength, to produce the BATS.
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Where has the BATS been?
The daily BATS reading over time, computed with the same weights and formulas used on the gauge above.
Does the BATS work? — Historical backtest
For every trading day since 2007, we compute the blended BATS from that day's live components (using the same weights shown above), then measure how the S&P 500 actually performed 6 and 12 months later. This is the honest test of whether the combined signal earns its keep.
Real market moments — what did the BATS say?
The aggregate backtest above averages every trading day since 2007. Below are specific moments people actually remember — famous crashes, famous bottoms, famous tops — with the BATS reading on that day and how the S&P 500 performed afterward. This is the "did it work at the moment that mattered?" test.
The two sub-gauges
Companion dials flanking the main BATS gauge — designed to answer two different questions in one glance.
Upside Trend Higher = trend healthier
Answers: “Is the current uptrend broad and healthy?” Blends 11 trend, participation, and momentum indicators across multiple timeframes. Weighted toward short-term momentum so the gauge responds to day-to-day SPX action, not just slow structural drift.
- S&P 500 vs 200-day MA (long-term trend)
- S&P 500 vs 50-day MA (short-term trend)
- % of Stocks Above 200 MA (long-term breadth)
- % of Stocks Above 50 MA (short-term breadth)
- Sector Rotation Regime (cyclicals vs defensives)
- Junk Bond Demand (credit risk-on)
- Sector Oscillator (day-to-day participation)
- S&P 500 5-day ROC (short-term momentum)
- S&P 500 10-day ROC (medium-term momentum)
- MACD histogram (momentum acceleration / inflection)
- Bollinger %B (position vs 20-day volatility bands — above upper = strong trend)
Use as a contrarian read — same spirit as BATS. The backtest (2007–2026, 4,861 days) says the strongest forward setup is a LOW reading, not a high one. At scores ≤20 the S&P has averaged +6.5% at 60 days and +18.8% at 250 days (baseline +2.3% / +10.4%). Every bottom-10 lowest reading landed at a real market bottom (2008-11, 2009-02/03, 2011-10, 2018-12). What feels worst has historically been the best entry.
Pivot Top Higher = more top risk
Answers: “Is the market overheated and vulnerable to a short-term top?” Fires when multiple indicators show extreme optimism or overextension at the same time. Reads LOW during calm uptrends and HIGH when the tape gets frothy.
- RSI overbought (momentum stretched, fires above 60 — steep bonus past 70)
- NAAIM extreme leverage (managers all-in, fires above 75)
- SPX overextended above 50 MA (price stretched, fires above +2%)
- VIX complacency (fear too low, fires below 15)
- Bollinger %B (price vs 20-day volatility bands — steep warning above the upper band)
Best used as a short-term signal. The backtest (2006–2026, 5,071 days) shows the meaningful edge lives in the 5–60 day window: at scores 80+, S&P forward returns averaged −1.4% at 20d with a 40% hit rate (baseline +0.8% / 66%). By 250 days the effect washes out — markets always trend up on a long enough horizon. Read Pivot Top as an immediate pullback risk gauge, not a "start selling for the long haul" call. A low reading is not a "safety" signal — it just means no active top-formation warning right now.
Top 10 highest ever Backtest 2007–2026
Every day Upside Trend hit its all-time highs, and how the S&P 500 behaved after. High readings historically preceded near-baseline returns — healthy tape but no meaningful edge. The contrarian buy was the OTHER end (LOW readings).
| Date | Score | 20d | 60d | 250d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009-09-16 | 88.0 | +2.2% | +3.1% | +4.9% |
| 2009-10-15 | 86.0 | −0.8% | +3.6% | +7.4% |
| 2020-06-08 | 84.7 | −2.7% | +9.1% | +30.9% |
| 2009-10-14 | 84.6 | +0.6% | +5.0% | +7.1% |
| 2009-10-19 | 82.7 | +1.0% | +4.6% | +7.1% |
| 2009-09-17 | 82.6 | +2.9% | +3.8% | +5.6% |
| 2009-09-18 | 82.4 | +1.8% | +4.3% | +5.3% |
| 2020-06-05 | 82.3 | −0.4% | +9.6% | +31.3% |
| 2020-09-02 | 82.1 | −5.6% | +1.6% | +26.3% |
| 2009-09-15 | 82.1 | +2.0% | +4.1% | +6.6% |
Backtest 2007–2026, 4,861 days. Baseline: 20d +0.8% / 65% hit, 60d +2.3% / 72%, 250d +10.4% / 81%. At scores 80+, forward returns are basically at baseline. The real signal is at the bottom of the gauge: score ≤20 preceded 60d avg +6.5% and 250d avg +18.8%.
Top 10 highest ever Backtest 2006–2026
Every day Pivot Top hit its all-time highs, and how the S&P 500 behaved in the days after. 7 of 10 preceded a real short-term pullback; 250d effect washes out.
| Date | Score | 20d | 60d | 250d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-01-26 | 96.8 | −3.2% | −8.3% | −7.2% |
| 2020-08-28 | 95.6 | −4.5% | +2.0% | +27.4% |
| 2016-12-09 | 95.3 | +0.4% | +4.7% | +16.7% |
| 2020-08-26 | 95.0 | −6.7% | +3.0% | +29.0% |
| 2020-08-27 | 94.0 | −5.3% | +2.1% | +29.0% |
| 2020-09-02 | 93.9 | −5.6% | +1.6% | +26.3% |
| 2020-09-01 | 93.3 | −4.6% | +2.9% | +28.4% |
| 2018-01-05 | 93.3 | −3.4% | −3.6% | −7.7% |
| 2024-07-10 | 93.2 | −7.7% | +1.2% | +11.5% |
| 2017-10-05 | 92.5 | +1.1% | +5.6% | +14.6% |
Backtest 2006–2026, 5,071 days. Baseline: 20d avg +0.8% / 66% hit, 60d +2.4% / 72%, 250d +10.1% / 80%. At scores 80+, 20d averaged −1.4% / 40% hit — the meaningful short-term edge.
About the BATS
BATS stands for Benchmark Asset and Trend Scenarios. The BATS combines several well-known market indicators into one number from 0 (very oversold) to 100 (very bullish). Each ingredient is publicly available data — volatility, breadth, momentum, options activity, and more — and we explain on each component's page exactly how it contributes.
The blending logic itself is proprietary: we choose which indicators to include, how to weight them (weights reflect each component's historical predictive power), and how to translate the raw numbers into a single signal.
Important: Nothing on this site is investment advice. Markets are unpredictable. This is a sentiment thermometer, not a crystal ball. Always do your own research or talk to a financial professional before investing.